THE low threatening the Queensland coast is forecast to form into a cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Weather Bureau forecasters say it is 1050km east of Cairns and intensifying.
It is expected to move southeast over the weekend and will not effect Queensland in this period.
Weather Channel forecast Dick Whitaker said the best take he had on the big storm was that it would develop into a cyclone and then drift away next week.
"But two models have it drifting back towards the coast about Wednesday," he said.
"We think that is a less likely scenario but it does raise a red flag.
"We've got to keep a close eye on it because of the doubt in the forecasts."
Mr Whitaker said all coastal catchments were soaked to the extent that just 50mm of rain could cause flash flooding.
"Who needs a cyclone now?" he said.
Weatherzone chief meteorologist Alex Zadnik said the system was starting to become more organised, or more like a cyclone.
"I'm in line with the bureau's thinking on this for the next three days," he said
"It's likely to become a category 1 cyclone tonight or tomorrow and looks like it will continue intensifying.
"It'll drift southeast but it's uncertain what it will do next week. Given some models say it will come back toward the coast, we need to keep an eye on it."
At 10am, it was reported that Queensland was expected to have its second cyclone of the season today when a major low 820km northeast of Townsville reaches cyclone strength.
But trying to work out which way Cyclone Sandra will head is proving a nightmare for forecasters.
As of 6am Thursday morning, the developing cyclone was located about 820km east-northeast of Townsville.
BOM forecaster David Grant said for the “short to medium term” they were confident the cyclone would remain in the Coral Sea but the long-term was still uncertain.
“The longer term forecast still has a bit of uncertainty to it,” he said.
“Whether it will develop a westward track back to Queensland, we’re unsure. There is a fair degree of uncertainty there.”
Mr Grant said over the weekend the cyclone is expected to move eastwards.
But computer models cannot agree if it will merely head to sea or whether New Caledonia, Fiji or Australia will feel its brunt.
Two major weather systems are steering the big storm but it is not clear which will be the major player in its course.
If a strong northwest monsoon flow prevails over a southeasterly high, the storm will be pushed away from Australia. If the position is reversed it could head towards the coast.
Weather Bureau forecaster Pradeep Singh said Coral Sea cyclones had a reputation for erratic patterns.
"Some behave," he said. "Yasi did. It had a reasonably consistent track but some you see have really erratic paths.
"They do all sorts of things. They go north, go south, do loops and this one might live up to the reputation."
The Early Warning Network, a commercial organisation that sends out severe weather alerts, has produced a map showing computer modelling tracks.
It's a confusing array of directions.
Network manager Kerry Plowright said major US, European and Australian models differed, showing just how difficult it was to forecast Coral Sea cyclones.
"Everyone's got a different outcome," Mr Plowright said. "Some have it coming down near Brisbane, others have it crossing the coast in the north and others have it going away completely.
"Things should crystallise over the next 48 to 72 hours. I hope it doesn't come this way. We've had enough."
Communities Minister Tracy Davis said Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements had been activated in the Western Downs local government area, including Dalby after a weekend flood.
"Queensland has been hard hit yet again by Mother Nature, with very heavy rain causing flooding throughout the southwest," Ms Davis said.
Tropical cyclone tracks for cyclones that formed or moved through the Eastern region from 1970 - 2004 as shown on the Bureau of Meteorology website. Source: The Courier-Mail
A high is producing gale force winds and a big swell, with waves to 7m recorded by an Environment Department buoy off North Stradbroke Island yesterday.
Mr Singh said although showers would remain along the coastal strip, the low would draw moisture away from Australia for the next few days, disappointing graziers who were desperate for rain.
Meanwhile, the body of a Leyburn resident, 64, who went missing in floods last week has been found in the Condamine River south of Toowoomba. Police have not found his four-wheel-drive vehicle.
No comments:
Post a Comment